Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economics. Show all posts

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Miracle of microfinance

I am excited about this new paper (May 2009) by Banerjee and Duflo, The Miracle of Microfinance: Evidence from a randomized evaluation. 2 months and 3 posts ago, I had just posted about these two star MIT development economists. This new paper is presented on the Poverty Action Lab (J-Pal) site, and J-Pal is about as good as it gets for economic research on poverty.

Here is a very short summary of this paper – a summary clipped from a summary by the Private Sector Development (PSD) Blog:

the first large-scale randomized trial of access to microfinance"

microcredit does have important effects on business outcomes and the composition of household expenditure

microcredit … appears to have no discernible effect on education, health, or women's empowerment … in the short term (within 15-18 months)

Here is my first reaction after only skimming the paper and reading the PSD review:

  1. Microfinance is not a miracle.

    We don't need a scientific paper to say microfinance is no miracle. The fact that there are positive business outcomes after 15-18 months is great. The fact that people aren't smarter, healthier, and more egalitarian … normal. Maybe some people have been parading for some time as though microfinance were a miracle, there have been many such miracles in the past, disappointing panaceas for the developing world that have surged and failed. A point that Banerjee and Duflo would likely support is that there are also many development solutions that have come and gone untested by academic rigor. That is where I am very happy to read this new paper. But let's read it for the rigor, not for miracles dispelled. We're agreed on the miracle point.

  2. PSD post: "The verdict is in on microfinance."

    The first large-scale randomized trial is in. I wouldn't say that's the verdict. The best part about this PSD post is that the first sentence after the "verdict is in" is: "And it's not pretty." What? Positive business outcomes, uncertain social effects after 15-18 months of opening a new microfinance branch in a slum. How pretty are we looking for? We've seen 50 years of development efforts leave much of Africa poorer, I think we can give microfinance a little more than 15-18 months to see sweeping social change.

Ok, microfinance is a tool to alleviate poverty in a way that is sustainable and respects human dignity and responsibility. It's not a miracle answer, and the verdict isn't exactly in regarding its overall effectiveness. That being said, I'm excited about this new paper. I guess I should read it now.

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Price of development aid

Prices are interesting. I asked my dad once how much my George Brett rookie card was worth; he responded, "Whatever someone pays for it." What a bad answer. I knew at that young age that my dad had surely fallen to the fallacy of circular reasoning; his answer was worthless. Later in life, I look back and have decided that I owe him because I finally figured it out (I also figured out that my father, too, was an economics major).

Most things are scarce in that there is no endless supply. The more scarce something is, the more an additional amount of that something costs. Salt is very valuable, but additional salt for the average person is not so scarce and not so expensive. Economist magazines are not so abundant on the street of Kigali, so if I'm lucky enough to get another issue (I have only one Christmas edition issue now) then I would gladly pay over $10 USD. So price, what I am willing to pay, depends on the happiness that an additional magazine issue brings me. My demand for an additional unit of something plus the relative scarcity, this is where we get price. Some like to just say, supply and demand. Economics, … whatever.

Let's talk about the price of development aid. In Rwanda, NGOs flooded the market for social services after the war in 1994. There was great need, and there is still great poverty.

Made up scenario to illustrate the price of development aid:

One typical NGO response to poverty is to give a family a cow. The family receives the cow at a price of zero (0). After giving the family one cow, their demand for an additional cow is less than before. If every family in the village gets a cow and more than one NGO is competing to give away more cows, then cows at zero cost are higher in supply, and demand for an additional cow is lower. Now if an NGO wants to give away more cows, they may find that families are willing to spend less than zero to get that cow. What's less than spending zero? You pay me. I mean, if I'm willing to miss out on work that could make me money, there are opportunity costs for me to get your free cow; and if I have to travel to the village center to meet you then I incur transaction costs to get my cow. I find that I'm no longer willing to come get it, that is, unless you pay me. In fact, if NGOs are competing to give me a cow, and it is important for NGOs to fulfill their missions and report back to their donors, then the best strategy for the NGO is to compete on their respective pricing for free cows. That is, the prices for cows become more negative, NGOs pay for meeting attendance and pay extra for transportation allowance.

What is the cow worth to the villager?

That's not the primary question to the NGOs; they like to ask, "Is poverty being reduced?" If poverty is defined by not having cows, then poverty is being reduced. If poverty is defined by not having sick cows … It costs money to keep a cow from getting sick, by the way. NGOs can train people to care for cows, but the cows are not worth very much, relatively speaking. The cow has worth, but is it worth more than my time and effort in taking care of the cow, or worth more than the money spent to buy medicine for the cow? Not when an additional cow is provided to me at negative cost. I can get paid for receiving more zero-priced animals, so my time, effort, and money are better used elsewhere. Possibly, I'll want to devote more time to leisure, and that's a completely rational response.

Prices are supposed to align people's motives so that their pursuit of self-interest is guided by the invisible hand that makes society better off. How does society react with negative prices?

NGOs ask families to take care of their free livestock and to then donate any offspring to the next family in the program. However, neither of these things makes rational sense to the participants. Why invest in the cow? I don't have much money or high expectations for my future and more negative priced cows are available. Why give away the offspring? The same people that gave me my cow can just give my neighbor a cow, I can sell mine, we're both better off. What makes sense to NGOs does not make sense to the villagers because it's not in their best interest. You get the cow at a negative price, sell the offspring for a positive price.

When you artificially change prices, you distort people's choices, their incentives, and their actions. You do not, necessarily, change poverty this way.

Follow up pointers about foreign aid

Bill Easterly is blogging now at Aid Watch: "Just asking that aid benefit the poor."

Bill Gates [First] Annual Letter, optimistic and impatient, he tells us what's working and what's not. Also, it's gratifying to see an email in my inbox from Bill Gates and it's not asking me to forward to my 50 closest friends, even though now I am sort of doing that. Hmm.

New book – The Trouble with Aid: Why Less Could Mean More for Africa (African Arguments), Jonathan Glennie


Slight tangent, but relevant to foreign intervention/regulation in an academic kind of way (thanks to Jeff Kern for this gift of an article).

Cato Institute Trade Policy Analysis Paper: "While Doha Sleeps: Securing Economic Growth through Trade Facilitation," Daniel J. Ikenson

Friday, January 16, 2009

Choices for/against prostitution

Nicholas Kristof had a couple of articles that got me thinking about a paper I wrote on illicit labor market efficiency back in economics grad school. He wrote one article on sweatshops and one on prostitution. Would you believe he was for sweatshops? (Not that I necessarily endorse this view, Private Sector Development Blog gives another view.) Where do you think he stood on prostitution?

Well, ease your mind, I think Mr Kristof and I are both against prostitution, so you can keep reading.

Why is he for sweatshops? Sweatshops offend our charitable Western sensibilities … no one should work in such conditions. Mr Kristof, however, asks his readers to consider the alternatives: no job or worse conditions. On a macro scale, how can a poor nation become an industrialized trading partner if it doesn't climb up through the mire and muck of difficult working conditions and low wage employees? We did it once long ago. People choose to work at sweatshops because it's their best choice given their circumstances.

Economically, the choices people make are often assumed to be the most efficient choices for them – rational choices. People know what makes them better off. Sometimes we would prefer better for people who work in sweatshops, but there may not be better alternatives. Refusing to trade with countries that "exploit" labor means that those people who were getting exploited are now out of a job.

Pro-sweatshops, anti-prostitution.

So, why not prostitution? Even worse, travel to Poipet, Cambodia, or Mombasa, Kenya, among others, and you will find a high premium on child prostitution. Economists may argue, though, that measures to prevent prostitution, even for children, will just leave those poor people with even less choice and much worse conditions … starvation, violence, death.

My question, and my economics paper from before, is about the efficiency of slavery, prostitution, and other forms of illicit labor. Don't people make rational choices to maximize their own welfare, and if we mess with that, then do we mess them up? Is prostitution an efficient labor market outcome?

Some economic papers concerning such illicit labor markets suggest that the main objection to jobs like prostitution is moral repugnance. We don't like the thought of it. We would hope for something better. Economically, they claim, illicit job choices are efficient, prostitution is efficient; prostitution is the best (sic) choice for some young women and young boys.

Ok, here's the quick of it: endogenous choices. The decisions that, say, prostitutes make are based on a predetermined game … where they lose. The idea is that, yes, if people choose a job then it must be their best alternative. If you ban prostitution, it doesn't help prostitutes, they'll just starve now. But here's the thing, what if prostitution is their best choice because someone has restricted their choices? – and therein lies the problem.

Forgive me here, but I'm reading a book on game theory, so let's construct a game:

First, let's simplify. All women in Mombasa can choose between two jobs, basket weaving and prostituting. All employers in Mombasa can choose to be good (respect their workers and pay fair wages) or choose to be bad (take advantage of their workers for higher profit). The chart above shows the payouts to employers in the upper right of each square, and the payout for women is in the lower left square. A payout of 4 is great; a payout of 1 is pretty poor.

Scenario A) Let's say that all employers in Mombasa are good (left column). Now the only choice is what work women prefer if employers are good. Women will prefer a payout of 4 instead of 3, so if all employers are good, women prefer basket weaving. Even if prostituting involves making more money, the payout for women may include more than just money, payout can be dignity plus income. Basket weaving wins out.

Scenario B) If every single employer in Mombasa is bad (right column), then women will prefer to prostitute because their payout is 2 instead of 1 for basket weaving. This may be the case because bad employers take advantage of all of their workers, but prostitutes can bring in more than weavers so there's a bigger take for the women to prostitute.

So the choice of basket weaving or prostituting, for the women, depends on whether all employers are good or all employers are bad. In a perfect world, however, the best a woman can do is 4, so any woman would ideally want to weave baskets for good employers.

What about the choices for employers?

Scenario C) Let's say that all women weave baskets (top row). Now the employers must decide: should I be good or should I be bad? If all women weave baskets, being good gets an employer 2 and being bad gets 3, so the employer will prefer to take advantage of her employees and be bad. Scenario D) What if all women are prostitutes (bottom row)? Well, the employer still gets a better payout for being bad, 4 to 3.

Note here that employers will choose to be bad, take advantage of employees, and receive a bigger payout regardless of whether women weave or prostitute. In game theory, this is called a dominant strategy: when one player has a choice that is always better than any other choice that player could make regardless of the other players' choices. Dominant strategy does not mean best overall outcome, just that one player has a choice better than all of that player's other choices no matter what others do.

If employers have a dominant strategy to be bad, they're going to be bad. If employers are always bad, we know that it is better for women to choose prostitution, as in Scenario B above.

Just because women choose prostitution, it doesn't mean that prostitution is an efficient economic outcome (much less an efficient human outcome).

The best choice for a woman in our model above is by far to weave baskets. Prostitution is simply the best choice given that the game is rigged against them.

The model above is very simplified, so what are some ways that the game is rigged against women or children or the poor and vulnerable? … Education, social stigmas, discrimination, AIDS, slavery, corruption, sexism, drugs, vicious circles of poverty.

Prostitution is bad, and repugnant. Do we fight to ban prostitution at the expense of the very poor? Mr Kristof wants to see brothels become unprofitable through systemic changes. Where illicit labor markets prevail, the economic, social, and justice systems are broken; so how can we see prostitution become a bad choice and how can we restore women's best choices?


Further Reading

Kristof, Nicholas. 2009, January 10. "Striking the Brothels' Bottom Line." New York Times, Op-Ed.

Kristof, Nicholas. 2009, January 14. "Where Sweatshops Are a Dream." New York Times, Op-Ed.

Dixit, Avinash K. and Barry J. Nalebuff. Thinking Strategically: The Competitive Edge in Business, Politics, and Everyday Life. London: Norton, 1993.

Imperfect Outcomes for Illicit International Labor Markets: short bibliography.

Genicot, Garance. 2002. “Bonded Labor and Serfdom: A Paradox of Voluntary Choice.” Journal of Development Economics 67(1): 101-127. [More on endogenous choices.]

Thursday, January 08, 2009

Growth, entrepreneurship, savings clubs

Savings clubs got a mention by a favorite economist recently. Abhijit Banerjee discussed economic growth and entrepreneurship (PQRS and the Mechanics of Growth); here are a couple of points that came out:

  1. Lots of poor countries have people working for themselves, but that isn't the same as productive entrepreneurialism. Working for yourself in those contexts, in Banerjee's words, is like "buying a job and not a particularly good job."
  2. The poor could spare small luxuries, save more money, avoid large interest and increase daily income, but what is the point? At the end of the day, the extra income is very small, they're still poor, life's not so different. Lot of discipline, little gain.

Here's some detail about #2:

Dean Karlan and Sendhil Mullainathan, in a recent paper, put this point rather starkly. They study fruit vendors in Chennai, India, who make about two to three dollars a day by buying fruit in the morning on credit and paying it back at night. It turns out that the interest rate they pay is 5% per day and at that rate, saving the ten cents they spend on tea for just one day would allow them to pay back their entire loan in six months (the power of compound interest) and add a dollar a day to their earnings. Yet most of them seem to be permanently stuck in their business model.

My point here is not to suggest that there is something egregiously irrational about the poor. Looking at it from their point of view, it seems clear that what they are missing out on is not really an opportunity to transform their lives: we are talking about a few more cups of tea or a few more meat dinners, in return for a few months of discipline. They would remain poor, indeed very poor.

When offered something that would make a significant difference to their lives—say the opportunity to join a ROSCA or a savings club that would help them buy a television—the poor seem to be happy to make the sacrifices. It is more that business-wise they do not see themselves being able to do anything very different. And most of them are probably right.

Banerjee's article focuses on PQRS: differentiated PRODUCT, better QUALITY, reputed RELIABILITY, and SCALE of operations. That's how an entrepreneur establishes real economic growth for herself.

My interest, of course, is that he mentioned savings clubs and significant differences in people's lives. And the difference is more than buying televisions, though that is also significant. The fact is that for the very poor, a savings club may be the difference maker that unlocks the potential for real entrepreneurialism, real community investment, and real lifestyle change. I also like the point that for that kind of change, the poor are happy to make the sacrifice and save. That is a development litmus test, to me: do the poor want this development enough to be happy to make sacrifices to pursue it?

Friday, December 19, 2008

Saving-in-kind

How do the poor save? I've written before about how can the poor save. They want to, they can, they do. But for this edition of "how" do they save, let's talk about saving-in-kind.

1968, 1 oz. of Hershey's chocolate costs $0.05

2008, 1 oz. of Hershey's chocolate costs $0.59

40 years, over 5 times the price, simple inflation.

Germany once had inflation so bad that bar patrons would order two beers at a time so that the second beer would not cost twice as much as the first, even though it would be a little warmer.

If you are super poor in a country that has super inflation (I think that's a technical term), then how in the world can you save anything for a bad day? This is hypothetical, of course, not happening here and now, but you could kind of imagine that happening right? Oh, by the way, Zimbabwe's inflation is somewhere in the range of 231,000,000% right now.

What would you do if inflation were to happen in America (again, hypothetical)? Put money in gold or silver? How about cows? Cows actually make a good form of savings, especially if you like milk. Inflation can come and go, but a cow is still worth a cow. Maybe you can't afford a cow … that's a problem. Or maybe you have a cow and you need $5 to go to the dentist; do you just sell a whole $60 cow?

Q: Can you sell 1/12 of a cow?

A: Only if you're ready to eat the other 11/12 of it.

Me, I prefer goats. Danielle prefers goats, too, but mostly as friends. Goat milk or cheese is tastier to me, and you can diversify your investment with 4 goats instead of 1 cow. Then it's easier to cash in just one goat. Pigs will do in a pinch, but they're not kosher.

If you really like easily accessible assets, go rabbits. Quick breeders, easy to cash, tasty to eat, ... but I hear they can catch and spread disease quickly, too. But hey, when one cow gets a disease and one cow is what you got, what are you going to do?

Monday, December 08, 2008

Part of being rich

Money is one part of being rich, perhaps just a small part, though.

When Danielle and I lived in East Point, we were both fulltime graduate students. Not rich. At least, we did not have much money. What we did have was two cars and lots of options.

If I needed socks, for instance, I could get in the car and drive to Wal*mart and have any kind of sock I desired. Fancy socks, maybe argyle. Duke Blue Devil socks. Whatever socks I wanted, I could buy, and I could buy them very cheaply. Wal*mart stocks a lot of socks.

I need socks. Some things fall in priority when you get a new job and move to Rwanda, so I left America with old socks that have holes in them (not to mention the smell). Part of my problem now is that I don't know where to go to get the cheapest socks of the best quality. The other part of my problem is that, relatively, America is richer than Rwanda. Sometimes richer means more options for cheap goods at low transaction costs.

Please send socks.

Friday, December 05, 2008

Money don’t last forever

I've heard before that the world's poor has trouble saving. Well, there're lots of reasons for that. But sometimes money just doesn't last. Sometimes moth and rust destroy, thieves break in and steal. Sometimes money withers away.

Here, below, is cent francs. 100 RWF. It's worth about 18 cents USD. They also have 100 RWF in coin version, and this we prefer. We spend these bills as fast as we get them because they feel like they are about to disintegrate in our pockets. Danielle wants me to say something about the velocity of money, MV = PQ, quantity theory of money, but basically small bills get worn out.

Saturday, November 01, 2008

Savings and Credit Association Specialist

Did I mention that my new job title is Savings-Led Specialist? I start work Monday and my job title has changed; it's ok, it still means the same thing. Savings and Credit Association and Savings-Led refers to a type of microfinance service designed for the very poor to build some financial sustainability.

Background:
When HOPE launches a new microfinance institution to empower the world's poor, they do so with a technically proficient and economically sustainable model that requires million dollar investment. Great news for the economically active poor who have no access to the financial services necessary to break out of the vicious cycle of poverty! This class of financial clients may range from small business owners to medium sized enterprises, and loan products could be in the $50 to $5,000 range, or for small/medium enterprise (SME) it could be $5,000 to $50,000.

Let's take a step back, then. Yes, the world's poor have resources and income. Why is there a cycle of poverty that keeps these poor vulnerable to famine and illness, oppressive labor, violence? One huge factor is capital. What can a lump sum of money do that small increments cannot? I think my brother - who worked in banking for a while - may have got it best when I said we are going to bring banking services to poor people who have no access to anything like that. He knows, as most of us do when we think about it, the value a bank brings to revitalizing community, building local businesses, supporting families' health and education.

Back to my job:
Ok, so HOPE provides financial services to the world's poor, and does so in an economically sustainable way so that growth can spread. As a missionary organization, HOPE cares for poor people stuck in hard places; my job is to help reach a poorer class of people.

Savings and Credit Associations (SCAs) provide efficient delivery of financial support. SCAs train communities to perform financial services using their own resources through savings groups, thus the "savings-led" title. The typical HOPE financial institution is credit-led using outside investment instead of savings-led using the communities resources. The SCA model empowers smaller, poorer, more rural communities to take steps toward independence and confidence managing financial resources.

Rwanda and India are the main areas where HOPE employs the SCA model, and so Rwanda is where HOPE will soon employ me.

SEEP Conference

SEEP: Small Enterprise Education and Promotion

Danielle and I will be in Washington DC next week to begin to meet micro-finance professionals and get up to speed on field issues we'll be applying in Rwanda. Danielle and I have the advantage of splitting up and doubling the sessions. Here's what's on our agenda:

Wednesday
Savings-Led Financial Services Working Group

Plenary Session:
Poverty Outreach and Microfinance

Thursday
Business Process Management: A Tool for Increasing MFI (micro-finance institution) Efficiency
Consumer Protection in Practice
Hunger Crisis: How do we help our clients survive and thrive?
How Can Networks Support Their MFI Partners' Quest for Social Performance Management?
MICROFINANCE AND THE POOREST (this is my job)
Market Development Mitigating Conflict

Friday
Breakfast Session:
Youth Enterprise & Financial Services: What's new and how does this affect your work?

Plenary Session:
Marketplace for the Retail Microfinance Investor: What microfinance can learn from eBay

Reducing Missed Opportunities: Capitalizing on microfinance service delivery for improved health
Practitioners as Knowledge Workers

Plenary Session:
Mainstreaming Sustainability: How large corporations change the way we do business


Some of the contributors for this conference:
USAID, Freedom from Hunger, Oxfam America, Accion, Brookings, Grameen, World Relief, Finca, Unitus, MEDA, Mercy Corps, and for the large corporations plenary session: Starbucks, Unilever, and Mars.

Thick descriptions or specific notes may follow after the conference. Then again, we'll be flying to Rwanda.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Nobel Prize Winner Paul Krugman Reading List

Paul Krugman just won the Nobel Prize for Economics. Are you interested in globalization, free trade, urban growth, or international development? Here's a few books along with his website of writings including articles for NY Times, Fortune, Slate, and others.

The Conscience of a Liberal (2007)
The Great Unraveling: Losing Our Way in the New Century (2004)
The Return of Depression Economics (2000)
The Accidental Theorist and Other Dispatches from the Dismal Science (1999)
Peddling Prosperity: Economic Sense and Nonsense in an Age of Diminished Expectations (1995)

Paul Krugman's MIT website.

Monday, September 29, 2008

Development Economics Reading List

An introduction to poverty, economics, and what we can do (plus what we've done wrong).

Abhijit Vinayak Banerjee, 2006
Understanding Poverty
28 essays by leading development economists dealing with poverty issues of measurement, causes, policies, microcredit, vaccines, child labor, welfare, and puzzles.*

Paul Collier, 2008
The Bottom Billion: Why the Poorest Countries are Failing and What Can Be Done About It
"50 failing states ... whose problems defy traditional approaches to alleviating poverty."

William Easterly, 2002
The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists' Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics
An explanation of economic growth failures since WWII, including "providing foreign aid, investing in machines, fostering education, controlling population growth, and making aid loans as well as forgiving those loans on condition of reforms." It's all about incentives.

Jeffrey Sachs, 2006
The End of Poverty: Economic Possibilities for Our Time
"A strong moral, economic, and political case for why countries and individuals should battle poverty with the same commitment and focus normally reserved for waging war."

Amartya Sen, 2000
Development as Freedom
1998 Nobel Prize for Economics recipient argues that "open dialogue, civil freedoms, and political liberties are prerequisites for sustainable development."

Philip Smith and Eric Thurman, 2007
A Billion Bootstraps: Microcredit, Barefoot Banking, and the Business Solution for Ending Poverty
"A bold manifesto by two business leaders [who show] why microcredit is the world's most powerful poverty-fighting movement and an unbeatable investment for your charitable donations."

Hernando de Soto, 2003
The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else
"A fascinating and solidly supported look at the one component that's holding much of the world back from developing healthy free markets."

Muhammad Yunus, 2008
(1) Banker to the Poor: Micro-Lending and the Battle Against World Poverty
(2) Creating a World Without Poverty: Social Business and the Future of Capitalism
2006 Nobel Peace Prize recipient (1) "[gives] an inspiring memoir of the birth of microcredit ... which has helped 100 million of the poorest people in the world escape poverty" and (2) "argues ... that social business is an achievable way of exploiting capitalism to help the poor."

* All book descriptions are from Amazon.com.